Penksa: The balance in arming the region has not been disturbed

A total of 5,151 heavy armaments were destroyed by the end of 2021 – 445 battle tanks, 232 armored combat vehicles, 4,470 artillery pieces, and 4 combat aircraft.

By: Sead Numanović

Appointed on 1 August 2022, Dr. Susan Penksa is the Acting Head of the OSCE Mission to Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). Since September 2019, she has been seconded by the U.S. Department of State as Head of Security Co-operation to the Mission.

Prior to joining the OSCE, Dr. Penksa led an international consulting practice providing strategic advisory services in global security. Her clients have included the U.S. Mission to the EU (Brussels); USAID-Pakistan; the EU Police Mission in BiH; the European Commission; the EU Delegation to the U.S. (Washington D.C.); and Democratic Control of Armed Forces (DCAF). She has extensive field experience from around the globe, including BiH, Kosovo, the Republic of Georgia, Lebanon, Pakistan, and Mexico.

For the Politici.ba she talked on arms control in the region and some other current events and activities of the Mission.

What is the role of the OSCE Mission to BiH as far as arms control is concerned? What is your mandate and what is it based on? What does it entail? What types of arms and what states in the region?

- The mandate of the OSCE Mission to Bosnia and Herzegovina (the Mission), deriving from the General Framework Agreement for Peace in BiH (GFAP), is geographically restricted to Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) and entails support to arms control and to measures for increasing confidence and security (CSBMs).

We work closely with defence and security sector institutions to decrease the risk of explosion, theft, and proliferation of ammunition, weapons and explosives (AWE) in BiH. For example, by improving physical security at weapons and ammunition storage sites and related life cycle management, we are contributing to safer storage and handling of AWE as well as the disposal of unstable and surplus AWE stockpiles.

The Mission is among the key international partners that help national authorities in implementing the BiH Strategy for Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALW), the BiH AWE Master Plan, and the Western Balkans Roadmap for SALW control.

BiH is also working hard to meet OSCE arms control commitments as well as international standards and best practices - including those deriving from the OSCE documents on SALW and Stockpiles of Conventional Ammunition (SCA).

Is the regional balance of power shaken when it comes to armaments? Serbia and Croatia keep purchasing weapons while BiH (seems to be) lagging behind?

- BiH, Croatia, Serbia and Montenegro are parties to the Agreement on Sub-regional Arms Control (Annex 1-B of the GFAP). This sets quantity limits on five categories of heavy weapons: artillery, battle tanks, armoured combat vehicles, combat aircraft, and attack helicopters. All Parties to the Agreement are well below the prescribed limits and are obliged to report on any new acquisitions as part of an annual information exchange under OSCE auspices. The Parties may also participate in the introduction and demonstration of new weapons systems conducted in line with protocols contained in the Agreement. This ensures transparency and enables an adequate assessment of capabilities and potential threats associated with new weapons systems.

Together with the other OSCE participating States, BiH is also part of several different annual information exchanges related to armaments and other military aspects. The transparency and predictability that derives from these information exchanges is vital for maintaining peace and stability.

How would you asses the public fear that the new (and old) piling of armaments efforts of Serbia and Croatia could be used against BiH?

- A robust verification and inspection regime under the Agreement on Sub-regional Arms Control plays an important role in maintaining regional stability and good co-operation. In the period 1996-2022, BiH conducted 423 inspections of military units in Croatia, Montenegro and Serbia and received the same number of such inspections. In the same period, the Parties to the Agreement performed a total of 129 inspections related to the reduction of armaments. International actors, including the OSCE, remain steadfast in supporting the governments of the region to sustain the progress achieved to date and strengthen co-operation on arms control.

How many undeclared weapons are there with private persons? Does the OSCE have an assessment?

- As you can imagine, it is very difficult to assess the exact number of weapons in the illegal possession of citizens. We recognize the need to conduct a comprehensive assessment to generate more reliable and accurate data on such weapons. As a post-conflict country, BiH has large quantities of such firearms that pose a major threat to security. This assumption is supported by, among other things, the fact that nearly 96% of all violent criminal offenses in BiH involve illegal firearms.

The South Eastern and Eastern Europe Clearinghouse for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons (SEESAC) conducted a noteworthy survey on SALW in BiH for the period 2012-2016. The survey data underscored the serious safety and security threats caused by SALW, including the widespread use of firearms in domestic violence and suicides as well as the troubling increase in firearms trafficked across borders.

Lasting peace and security in BiH and beyond depend greatly on reducing the illegal possession, misuse and trafficking of SALW and ammunition. As such, SALW control remains at the top of the Mission’s agenda. Our longstanding efforts have achieved tangible results over the years such as:

· improved physical security at military ammunition and weapons storage sites;

· increased capacity of military personnel to manage weapons and ammunition stockpiles;

· establishment of a state-of-the-art ammunition-testing laboratory at a military facility near Doboj, to name a few.

We now also have a new multi-year project worth more than EUR 3 million which will help BiH to reduce the security and safety risks related to illegal possession, misuse, and trafficking of firearms and their ammunition. For example, it will increase the security of police weapons and ammunition storage facilities and improve the ability of police dogs to detect weapons and explosives.

In parallel, we are advocating and supporting the harmonization of firearms legislation in BiH with relevant UN and EU standards - to utilize the most effective solutions in ensuring society’s safety from firearms misuse.

What are the Mission's assessments, how realistic is the risk that all these weapons can be dangerous and - even – incite a new war?

- Weapons are always dangerous if they are in the hands of those who intend to misuse them. This is why reporting and transparency are so important in helping decrease this risk and alleviate related concerns. The Mission, in co-operation with national and international partners, will continue doing its utmost to support BiH authorities to prevent the misuse of firearms.

How many armaments have been destroyed in BiH so far?

- A total of 5,151 heavy armaments were destroyed by the end of 2021 – 445 battle tanks, 232 armored combat vehicles, 4,470 artillery pieces, and 4 combat aircraft.

How many were sold?

- The BiH Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Relations is the competent institution for issuing export/import licenses for military and dual-use equipment and maintains an official record of the number of armaments sold.

Can you comment on the case of judicial confiscation of weapons and equipment of the Armed Forces of Bosnia and Herzegovina? According to media reports, potentially dangerous ("unstable") rockets are also exempted?

- The competent BiH institutions are processing this matter and related developments are being monitored by EUFOR. The enforcement procedure is still ongoing, and we cannot comment on active court cases. Official information can be obtained from the Court of BiH and the BiH Ministry of Defense.